The nearly 60,000 nursing home deaths attributed (so far) to Covid-19 is opening our eyes to a monumental aging problem that will last far longer than the pandemic.
There are currently fewer than 3 million long term care beds in the U.S. (approximately 1 million assisted living beds and less than 2 million licensed nursing home beds.) There are more than 70 million boomers. They will reach peak aging during this decade. That math doesn't work and we can't build our way out of this.
Fortunately, 90% of boomers want to age in place at home, but who will provide the support they need? Home care services are expensive, about $40,000 a year in North Carolina where I live--approximately the median annual income for a typical family. And then there is the 70% annualized turnover rate in the direct care workforce. That doesn't inspire confidence in service quality or even support rudimentary efforts at training.
To top things off there is a hidden but potentially disruptive cultural problem. Over 80% of the rapidly aging boomer generation is White, steeped in a culture of discrimination and racial superiority. The emerging young workforce is mostly Brown and Black, and demonstrably intolerant of atavistic racial attitudes. How is that going to work out? These and other issues related to the coming tsunami of old people require solutions. They will still be here--and even more menacing--after the pandemic subsides.
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